🚨 I’ll be live at noon ET🚨
This is not a company event but rather a special convention where I’m coaching folks up on my Measured Bounce pattern and Elliott Wave Theory [tap to join us]!
Before we get to it, a quick announcement…
I’m covering my Measured Bounce pattern during an Elliott Wave Hub event at noon ET today! This is purely educational and a great way to get more insight into how I see the market.
All you have to do is go here to register!
— — —
There’s something brewing with SpaceX that most traders aren’t paying nearly enough attention to, and it’s creating a setup worth understanding before Dec. 11 rolls around.
I’ve been watching the float situation closely, and here’s what’s happening. Right now, only about 33% of SpaceX (SPCX) shares are actually available in the market.
When the company first went public, we started with just 5% of the float. We’ve come a long way since then, but we’re still nowhere near full liquidity.
On Dec. 11, the Russell 2000 (RUT) rebalances, which means SpaceX is going to have to be added to a lot of portfolios that track the IWM. This rebalance could create around $10 billion worth of demand as funds scramble to match their benchmarks.
But before you get too excited, here’s the offset — new supply hits every two weeks, and that persistent drip could absorb a meaningful chunk of any rebalance-driven pop before it has a chance to run.
The Supply Problem Nobody’s Talking About
The math is straightforward. If 33% is available right now, that still leaves 66% of all shares yet to come to market. That’s a massive overhang, and new shares hit every two weeks.
All of those locked-up shares finally reach the market in June — so we could see the stock pop on rebalance demand, then gradually work its way lower as that remaining 66% floods in.
No all-clear until June, plain and simple.
Meanwhile, the broader RUT and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) setup matters here too. IWM faces first resistance at 291–292, with a push toward 310–311 if that level breaks. A constructive RUT tape amplifies index-addition flows — so watch those levels closely as a read on whether rebalance demand actually has legs.
What to Watch From Here
From a technical standpoint, I’m watching resistance around current levels, with a potential push up to the 184–185 area if we break through. Conversely, a rejection near 155 sets up a break of the prior low — so that’s your line in the sand on the downside. I’m not giving this an all-clear signal yet, and I won’t be until we see how that full float situation resolves itself in June.
One more thing people keep asking me about: the potential Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX combination. That’s probably not happening before the lockup period ends — it just doesn’t make sense from a structural standpoint.
If global liquidity continues to expand, rebalance effects get amplified across risk assets broadly. But there’s a real counterweight — a strengthening dollar could mute post-rebalance follow-through quickly.
I’m expecting the dollar to push into the 105–109 range near term, which is not a tailwind for this setup.
The bottom line? Dec. 11 could bring some fireworks with that RUT rebalance, but understand the full picture before you jump in. This isn’t a simple supply-and-demand play when you’ve got two-thirds of the shares still waiting in the wings, bi-weekly supply hitting the market and a dollar that could spoil the party.
Stay sharp out there.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!
You can also follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram:https://t.me/+6TdDE7-F6GlhMmJh
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Exploiting the Options Market with 0DTEs
With 0DTE options taking over the market…
I’ve found a way to play them for a shot at multiple daily returns!
I’ve laid out my entire setup for you to see, learn and adopt.
Stated results are from hypothetical options applied to real published trade alerts. From 7/10/24 – 11/14/25 the result was a 74% win rate on 3,874 trade signals with an average hold time of less than 24 hours on the underlying stock. Performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
