The midterm election is behind us, which means a historically powerful seasonal window has officially begun. After a choppy October, it may be tempting to stay cautious — but the long-term data makes this setup difficult to ignore.
I’m talking about the November through April period following midterm elections. Across the 19 completed cycles since 1950, this six-month window has produced a positive return every time.
That’s a 19-0 record. And we’re not talking about marginal gains: The average return during this stretch has been about 14% — the kind of performance most traders would be thrilled to capture in a full year.
A Pattern Built to Withstand Pressure
Here’s what really caught my attention: The weakest performance during those 19 periods was still a 3.52% gain, recorded during the late-stage tech bubble. Even in one of the most precarious market environments we’ve seen, the seasonal window finished positive.
The pattern has also endured periods of rising interest rates. That doesn’t make monetary policy irrelevant — aggressive tightening can produce volatility and challenge seasonal trends. But this history suggests the setup has remained resilient through speculative excess, economic uncertainty and restrictive financial conditions.
December still deserves close attention. It has been positive in only 12 of the 19 cycles, or roughly 63% of the time, so near-term turbulence remains possible. Historically, the more consistent strength has emerged after the holiday period, particularly from January through March.
How I’m Approaching the Open Window
October has typically provided the buying opportunity ahead of this post-election stretch. We already got a pullback, and with the election now complete, we’re at the opening of the November-through-April window rather than merely approaching it.
That doesn’t mean I’m expecting the market to move straight up. Seasonal tendencies are a guide, not a guarantee, and past performance cannot assure the same result this cycle. I’ll be watching how the market handles December, especially if interest-rate expectations shift or volatility returns.
Still, I’m positioning with the expectation that the historical pattern can continue. The election uncertainty is behind us, the seasonal window is open and the long-term odds have been remarkably favorable.
Because 19-0 is a record you don’t just dismiss.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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