🚨 I’ll be live at with Alex at 2:30 p.m. ET🚨
As SpaceX takes flight and oil hits a 2-month low on positive Iran talks, macro trends are moving fast. Tune in to see the exact setups Alex Reid is tracking on his Free Ride scanner to trade these massive shifts! [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
I spent most of the weekend digging through data, trying to make sense of what’s happening in precious metals right now.
Here’s what doesn’t add up: I can’t find anyone dumping gold on the market — not Turkey, not China, not any of the major players. All I can find is everybody’s buying it.
Yet gold and silver have been getting beat up — and Gold (GLD) should be testing $420 right now based on the fundamentals. So what gives?
My Conspiracy Theory
The Wall Street guys don’t like to buy stuff at high prices. So here’s what I think might be happening: They’re beating it up just so they can get it at a cheaper price before they turn it back around again.
I’m not saying this is fact. I’m saying it’s the only explanation that makes sense when you look at the buying pressure versus the price action.
Look at the geopolitical picture. Precious metals normally take off when war tensions rise, especially in the Middle East.
If we ever get an agreement with Iran, I think gold and silver will skyrocket. Yet for whatever reason, since the Iran situation started heating up, the metals have been hammered.
That’s backwards from how this usually works, and this crowd’s reaction is unlike anything I’ve seen in similar geopolitical setups.
I even looked at alternative explanations — crypto flows, black-market movements, anything tied to Iran. Nothing there pointed to meaningful selling pressure either.
The Coordinated Sell-Off
Then came the price action that really made me pause. For the majority of this week, crude was down, gold was down, silver was down — all of them selling off together.
When three unrelated markets move in the same direction at the same time despite no fundamental catalyst, it starts to feel programmatic rather than organic.
When you can’t find real selling but prices keep dropping, you’ve got to ask who benefits from cheaper levels. And the answer is simple: The institutions who want to accumulate before the next leg up.
For traders looking to position around this setup, I’ve been leaning toward short-term put spreads on GLD to take advantage of the forced downside.
At the same time, I’m still net positive on all open gold positions because of those hedges.
And despite the near-term pressure, this still looks like a long-term uptrend.
We’ve come a long way, and this feels more like a pullback than a reversal. It even aggressively broke down to test the 200-day moving average before stabilizing — the ultimate structural location to shake out weak retail hands before the bigger trend resumes.
I can’t prove any of this.
It’s my best read on what the institutions might be doing — beating the metals down so they can buy them cheaper.
Take it as informed speculation, not a confirmed fact.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram: https://t.me/+lm8_Nq3Su104NmFh
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialWars
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Geof Smith Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. My No. 1 Play to Outperform GoldÂ
I’ve got a huge update for you!
One asset is perfectly primed to outperform gold, especially with Kevin Warsh about to take over the reins as Fed Chair.
I’ve traded commodities for years.
Got gold in 2005, before the asset soared more than 400%.
And called the most recent cycle in 2023 before the asset went on to soar more than 160%.
But the asset I’m about to show you will give gold a run for its money…
And after digging deep with the team, conducting research and running tests…
I’ve discovered the #1 play you need to know to capitalize on the massive shift.
I won’t make reckless guarantees about the market.
But the Senate just confirmed Warsh as Fed chair and I see one massive opportunity lining up for traders like you and me.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 24 trades, with 20 winners and 4 still open, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.03%, and the average hold time has been 17 days.
