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There’s a pattern I’ve been trading for years that most folks ignore — and it’s one of the cleanest setups you’ll ever find.
It shows up every time we get a big economic number: CPI, PPI — the Consumer and Producer Price indexes that gauge inflation each month — GDP, nonfarm payrolls — any of those market-moving reports that drop weekday mornings.
At the center of it is what I call the news number. That’s simply the exact price where the market opened when the news hit, and it becomes the reference point everything else reacts to that day.
Say we get a hot jobs report and the market rips higher right away. Everything looks bullish.
But if it comes back down and breaks below that news number after running up, they’re going to tank it.
Same in reverse: If they sell it hard but rally back above that level, it’ll usually keep going.
This works because institutions and algos anchor themselves to that first reaction. They treat it as the market’s honest response before the noise kicks in.
How to Actually Trade It
Look at the news range — the high and low formed right after the data release — and then wait for the opening bell.
The key is patience. Don’t trade inside that range.
Wait for the decisive break. Once it goes, it tends to keep going.
Whichever way they push through that range after the open tells you the likely direction for the session.
This setup plays out beautifully on the Dow (DIA). I’ve seen it behave cleaner there than almost anywhere else, but you can use the same logic on other indexes and even individual plays.
Don’t Overstay Your Welcome
One thing to remember: This setup only has real power for a day or two.
After that, the market stops caring about the report. It’s been priced in and everyone is trading something else.
So mark the level, wait for the break and let the move unfold. No indicators, no clutter, no guessing — just one number and the discipline to let the market show its hand.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. What the Media Outlets Are Completely Ignoring Right Now
By now, you might be aware that the Senate recently confirmed the new Fed Chair.
And based on my research… Warsh might set in a huge shift that I’m not seeing the media outlets talk about enough.
A shift that could prove rewarding for traders in the know.
I’ve spent three decades trading the markets…
And over the years, the Fed has singlehandedly triggered this shift, and it’s been rewarding for folks in the know.
I recently went on camera to spill the beans about this massive shift that Warsh could bring as Fed Chair.
And I also reveal the no.1 play every trader needs to know to take advantage of.
I won’t make reckless guarantees…
But if you want the details on this approach…
Tap Here to Get the Entire Breakdown
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 24 trades, with 20 winners and 4 still open, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.03%, and the average hold time has been 17 days.
