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There’s a certain irony to watching Wall Street celebrate a miracle drug that’s got thousands of people lining up to sue. But that’s exactly where we are with the GLP-1 obesity drug market.
For decades, the advice was simple — eat less, move more. Now we’ve got drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro promising weight loss without the work, and the market is exploding. This sector is expected to hit $200 billion by the early 2030s, putting a single line of medicine on track to rival or even surpass entire global categories like vaccines or oncology treatments. That’s not normal growth — that’s a pharmaceutical supernova.
But here’s what caught my attention: Goldman Sachs came out calling Novo Nordisk (NVO)’s recent 71% collapse an opportunity to buy the dip. That’s not a dip — it’s a crater. Yet the logic behind the call is worth examining.
The Bull Case
Roughly 12% of U.S. adults are already on GLP-1s — about 30 million prescriptions. With Medicare joining in, adoption only accelerates from here. The demand story is airtight.
Then there’s the valuation gap. Eli Lilly (LLY) trades at a forward P/E around 40 to 50 — rich even for a dominant player. Meanwhile NVO, the company that essentially invented this market, sits at a far lower 16 to 18. Part of that discount comes from geography and manufacturing. LLY has U.S.-based plants and avoids tariff exposure. NVO is more Europe-centric and carries political baggage in the U.S., which can weigh on sentiment even when fundamentals are strong.
But NVO has a catalyst that could level that playing field — the introduction of a Wegovy pill expected in 2026. No more injections. Anyone who hates needles suddenly becomes a potential customer. If oral GLP-1s work as advertised, that alone could ignite a fresh wave of adoption.
The Litigation Nightmare
The legal side of this story isn’t subtle. The lawsuits are graphic, devastating and potentially expensive for the companies involved.
Take Todd Engel, a truck driver who used Ozempic to control his diabetes. Months later, he woke up unable to see out of one eye. Then the other. He’s now legally blind — a man who lost his job, his driver’s license and his entire lifestyle because he tried to manage his blood sugar. He was never warned that vision loss could be a side effect.
Another case involves Jo Ellen McLain, who took Wegovy to lose some weight and ended up with a ruptured colon, emergency surgeries and a permanent stoma. These aren’t edge cases — they’re part of a pattern. About 75% of lawsuits allege gastroparesis with many others covering intestinal blockages, gallbladder failure and neurological issues.
The first major trials don’t land until 2027 but estimates already put potential liability at around $2 billion, possibly higher if juries decide warnings were inadequate.
So where’s the trade? Investors can choose the beaten-down value play with NVO or ride the high-momentum market leader in LLY. There are also contenders like Pfizer (PFE), Roche and high-volatility biotechs like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) aiming to leapfrog the current generation entirely.
Or you can take the picks-and-shovels route — manufacturers, device makers and telehealth distributors that profit no matter who wins the drug war.
The market opportunity is massive. The risks are too. And sometimes the smartest strategy is finding the angle that lets you profit whether this becomes a miracle story or a cautionary tale.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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