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SpaceX is set to go public in 2026 and everyone is calling it the highest value IPO in history. The hype is real, the excitement is palpable and retail investors are already salivating at the chance to own a piece of Elon’s rocket empire.
That excitement makes sense. SpaceX has a strong, diversified business model. They only make 5% of their income from NASA and they bring in 95% from all the other things they do, from Starlink to commercial launches. That revenue mix alone makes them look far more robust than your standard high-growth tech IPO.
But fundamentals do not protect you from what happens after the opening bell. And most people forget what IPOs actually do to retail investors.
The IPO Pattern That Keeps Repeating
Let me show you what I mean…
Look at what happened with Uber after its IPO — it plummeted out, found a floor and then built off that. Some people want to blame COVID for that drop but the pattern was already in motion. The stock went public, got hyped up and then reality set in as the market discovered the true floor price.
This is essentially what I expect to happen with SpaceX. It is not a knock on the company — it is just how these massive IPOs work. The company and early investors get the big money and they got a great deal, but the shareholders and people like us that buy it get screwed when it goes down to find a base floor price.
That is the real risk here. The insiders cash out on day one, leaving retail investors holding the bag as the price drifts lower and lower until the market finds solid footing.
How to Play This Without Getting Burned
So what’s the smart move?
You can gain some exposure now through the Destiny Tech100 ETF (DXYZ) and the ARC Venture Fund (ARCVX), both of which hold positions tied to SpaceX. But I have to warn you — the liquidity is not great with gaps all over the weekly charts.
You’re dealing with illiquid positions that can move against you fast when trading these funds.
My plan is simple… I’m waiting.
I’ll watch the IPO launch, let it do what IPOs do — plummet and find its floor — and then I’ill consider getting in once the dust settles and a real base forms. That’s where the actual opportunity is, not in the opening-day circus.
SpaceX is going to be a massive company. But that doesn’t mean you need to be a hero and catch the falling knife right out of the gate. Patience here is not caution — it’s strategy.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Dark Pools Now See More Trading Volume Than Regular Exchanges
I’ve found a way to leverage these dark pools using a special class of securities I call Supercharged Tickers.
They’re not options, in fact they’re much simpler to buy and sell, and there’s no time decay — and they move just like options.
Now I’m going after the next opportunity — ready to join me?
