Why I Still Think About Tesla (And What Apple Just Taught Me Again)
If you’ve ever sold a stock and still felt like you owned it… yeah, same.
I caught myself doing it the other day with Tesla. The stock was down 7% at the open and my first thought was, “Oh no, my Tesla!”
Except — I don’t own it. Haven’t for a while.
But in the back of my brain, it’s still “my” stock.
You hold something long enough, it becomes part of your mental portfolio. And even after you close it out, your emotions stay invested.
But sometimes that emotional hangover can be a signal.
Not in a technical sense — but in a “pay attention here” kind of way. Because often, the stocks we’re most attached to were the ones that really mattered at some point — either good or bad.
And that’s how I’ve been feeling about Apple lately.
Now let me be clear… I’m not comparing Apple to Tesla in terms of price action or volatility. Totally different beasts.
But what is similar is the way people have completely written Apple off this year — and how that might be setting up the kind of opportunity most traders miss.
If you’re just looking at the daily chart, Apple doesn’t look like much. Choppy, range-bound, a few pops here and there. It’s been dead money for a while.
But zoom out to the monthly chart — and everything changes. It’s one of the strongest long-term trends in the market, and right now it’s quietly showing signs of life again.
Now, most people never look at the monthly chart. They get way too “zoomed in” to what is happening now, but I personally think it’s an important exercise every once in a while to give you better context.
And, right now, the risk to reward on Apple is quite good simply because of where it’s priced relative to the overall market. This is the kind of structure I love to trade — especially with a little edge on our side.
There are two ways to consider Apple here in my view.
#1 The Defensive Trade
You could say, listen, I don’t think Apple has what it takes to make another big run like it has in the past – it’s beyond its prime. But you still think it’s beaten down enough and will probably remain above $200.
Well, you could take a “defensive” trade like I do with the Income Machine that targets a pretty nice ROI for a high-probability trade with lots of room for the stock to float around and still come out with a win.
Inside the Income Machine, I flagged a trade setup that’s hard to ignore:
- Expiration: July 25
- Structure: Buy the $195 call, sell the $200 call
- Potential ROI: 19.8%
- Cushion: Apple could drop 4.5% and you’d still break even
You’re not betting on a moonshot. You’re simply saying, “Apple can hold the line.” And if it does, you collect nearly 20% in just a few weeks.
#2 The Offensive Trade
You could also go the other route — longer-term, more aggressive — and build something like a January 2026 spread targeting anywhere from $225 (middle of the range) to $260 (going for the highs.
Give it time, let the monthly candles stack, and you’re talking about several hundred percent ROI potential.
The structure of the trade would be the same where you buy a lower call and sell a higher one (like buying the $230 call and selling the $240 call), but the difference is that you would give it a lot more time and use the Jan 2026 expiation vs the July 25th one.
Either way, the key is this: Apple is offering options right now (no pun intended).
And that usually means opportunity.
Now, I know what some of you are thinking…
Nate, Apple’s cooked. They’re behind on AI. They haven’t had a major product breakthrough in years.
And you’re not wrong.
But here’s the funny thing most people don’t realize…
Apple has ALWAYS a terrible track record when it comes to being first. They were late on tablets. Late on wireless headphones. Late on smartphones. They were even late on the iPod that everyone thinks was a breakthrough (lots of portable mp3 players before it).
But they still owned those markets in the US (and still do own the relevant ones).
Why?
Because Apple’s not in the business of invention. They’re in the business of perfection.
They let the market test things, then swoop in, clean it up, rebrand it, and unleash it with their signature polish.
And people buy it — because it works.
iPads? Late. AirPods? Late. iPhone? Way late.
But all of them crushed.
And now, as they offload their internal AI team and start shopping for acquisitions, it’s just more of the same. They’ll let the early chaos play out, then deliver something clean, cohesive, and deeply integrated.
It’s the Apple way.
So when I look at the monthly chart, the Income Machine trade, the growing AI narrative — this all feels familiar. And that’s why I’m leaning in, not out.
Most of you know that just about every trade I take is based on the math – this one included (again, risk/reward is outsized here) – but sometimes I get that extra “feeling” involved where I simply like a stock for what it is.
It’s the same reason I bought some Tesla after the latest Twitter (ok, X, whatever) cage match with Trump and Elon. I usually trade momentum and bullish trends, but Tesla fails both. But I simply like where it’s at and the risk/reward makes sense to me.
Apple’s similar. It’s not “undervalued” by traditional metrics, but it has lots of room relative to where the market is and, technically, it looks fantastic if you have some patience.
You can play it a whole bunch of different ways, and I think they all have merit. Just remember that Apple isn’t likely to invent the next AI breakthrough, but they’re pretty darn likely to capitalize on it… And, when they do, you’ll probably be wishing you had a piece. Just my 2 cents!
— Nate Tucci
P.S. See setups like this and much more every weekday at 10am ET in the Opening Playbook. Don’t miss it!
