Silver’s doing something right now that has my full attention — and it should have yours too. Check out this weekly chart of the iShares Silver Trust ETF’s (SLV) year-to-date performance…
The metal is going parabolic, pushing toward a critical breakout level. This is the kind of price action that gets traders excited and reckless in equal measure. But here’s what most people are missing…
We haven’t even seen a higher high yet.
Look, I’m bullish on silver. Very bullish, actually.
My long-term target sits at $120 — that’s what it would take for silver to catch up performance-wise with what gold has already done, about 180% higher than today’s price over $42 a share for SLV.
The opportunity here is massive, possibly the biggest among the precious metals right now.
But opportunity and timing are two very different things.
The Pattern That’s Keeping Me Cautious
I’ve been studying silver’s chart, and something caught my eye — a historical pattern that’s almost too clear to ignore.
We’ve seen this movie before. Silver made a sharp move higher, just like now. Then it did something that wiped out overleveraged traders: A devastating pullback before the final blowoff move to the ultimate high.
That’s the part everyone forgets when they’re caught up in the excitement of a parabolic move. The straight-up price action feels unstoppable until it suddenly isn’t.
Here’s my read on where we are: This feels like that initial surge before the pullback — not the final blowoff top. The chart structure suggests we’re in the setup phase for that devastating retracement, which would then be followed by the real explosive move that takes silver to those triple-digit levels.
It’s a matter of when, not if. And that distinction matters enormously for how we can position ourselves.
How to Play This Without Getting Crushed
So what’s the smart move here? I wouldn’t short it — that’s fighting the bigger trend and asking for trouble. But I’m also not chasing it with both hands at these levels.
If you’re already in silver positions, consider taking some profits on this strength. Lock in gains while the momentum is in your favor. This isn’t about being bearish — it’s about respecting patterns that have played out before.
If you’re looking to get in or add to positions, patience could be your best friend right now. That pullback I’m expecting would create a much better risk-reward entry point — the kind that lets you load up for the real move without the immediate risk of getting caught in a sharp reversal.
The massive opportunity in silver is still ahead of us. But the path there probably isn’t going to be a straight line from here — as usual. Understanding that difference could be what separates a winning trade from a painful lesson in momentum investing.
Stay sharp, manage your risk, and don’t let the excitement of a parabolic move cloud your judgment.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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