After what looked like a nasty reversal, I’ve been digging into the structure of the recent pullback — and what I’m seeing in the Elliott Wave count might be the most constructive setup we’ve had since mid-December.
We may be staring at a completed ABC correction.
To be clear, nothing is confirmed until we get five clean waves up off the recent low. That’s the pattern to watch. If this thing starts pushing in a clear 1-2-3-4-5 structure — especially if it gets back above the prior high — then this entire move lower likely wraps up a corrective phase that’s already in the rearview.
The Big Picture Is Still Intact
This could be your classic expanded flat or complex ABC. We had a sharp move lower that scared a lot of folks — but structurally, it’s behaving like a B wave that exceeded the zero point, followed by a flush into a textbook C.
We’ve seen similar setups play out before. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), for example, displayed the same pattern with a clear three-wave bounce into a lower high, then a C wave down. Futures charts line up with that interpretation too.
If this is what it looks like — a completed correction — then we’re staring at a potential five-wave advance that targets the 6,600 to 6,800 range on the S&P 500 later this year. That would align with the timing I’ve had in mind since last fall. And after that?
I’ll be watching for a much larger correction.
Why It Matters Now
The market has been choppy and frustrating. We’ve gone virtually nowhere for nine months. But that kind of sideways action often precedes an explosive move. If this wave count confirms, it puts us back on track for the next leg higher — a leg that could unfold a lot faster than most are expecting.
If we don’t get the five-wave follow-through and instead roll over here, then we’re likely looking at an extended correction, or a different pattern altogether. But right now, the structure leans bullish — and that’s not something I’ve been able to say with conviction for a while.
This is a moment to stay sharp. The next couple of sessions could tell us whether this market is ready to rip — or if we’re still stuck in the mud. Either way, the wave structure is giving us a playbook.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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