CPI, Santa Rally, Small Caps Align for Maximum Opportunity This Week 

by | Dec 16, 2025

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Something’s lining up this week because the timing of these three events is just too perfect to ignore.

You may have noticed that Thursday’s CPI report was originally scheduled for last week — right before the Fed meeting — but got bumped. That strikes me as odd, and I can’t help but think there’s a reason for it.

Here’s my take: If the administration knew the CPI print was going to be bad, they wouldn’t want it affecting the Fed’s rate decision. So they moved it. I can’t say that with certainty, but it makes sense when you look at how much Trump has pushed for aggressive rate cuts.

That means we might be looking at some rough inflation data tomorrow morning. But bad news on the right day can be a great buying opportunity, especially when it lands in the middle of a powerful seasonal window.

The Santa Claus Rally Kicks Off Tomorrow

The Santa Claus rally technically starts on the 14th trading day of December — and that’s Thursday. And we walk right into triple witching on Friday, when quarterlies, monthlies and weeklies all expire at once.

It often brings volatility but the real edge comes after the dust settles.

Historically, the week following triple witching leans strongly to the upside. The Russell 2000 (RUT) goes higher 72% of the time, and the Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) climbs 70% of the time. That’s a pattern worth respecting.

And the market has been flashing early signals. Over the last couple of weeks, RUT’s been outpacing the S&P 500 (SPY) by more than double, and it’s been the strongest of the major indices even on weaker days. That kind of relative strength heading into this window matters.

Why This Alignment Matters Right Now

So here’s the setup. CPI hits tomorrow morning, the Santa Claus rally begins, and triple witching lands Friday. All of this is stacking inside a tight 48‑hour window — and it’s rare to see catalysts pile up this cleanly.

When several forces converge at once, you don’t just get direction — you often get momentum. If tomorrow’s CPI shakes the market and creates a dip, that could set up the cleanest entry of the month heading straight into a historically bullish stretch.

I’m watching RUT and QQQ closely for opportunities on Friday. RUT still looks stronger given its leadership and seasonal tendencies, but both have solid setups. A well‑timed move here could ride not only a bounce but a statistically favored trend.

This is the kind of week where everything lines up — and you either take advantage of it or you watch it happen. I’m not interested in watching.

Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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You’ll Want to Check This Out

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