🚨 I’ll be live at with Alex at 2:30 p.m. ET🚨
Alex is breaking down a unique market setup that has the potential to go quantum alongside his major SpaceX prediction for the week. Plus, he’ll reveal exactly why he believes META is dead in the water [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
I caught something in the energy markets recently — specifically during the middle of last week — that stopped me in my tracks.
Gasoline — the RB contract — rallied 10 cents per gallon in about 30 minutes. Then it flipped and dumped right back down another 10 cents.
That might not sound like much until you realize every penny move in gasoline is worth $420 per contract. So we’re talking about $4,200 up and $4,200 back down in half an hour.
The average daily range in gasoline is about 11 cents — and it just did that in 30 minutes.
When something behaves that far outside its normal rhythm, I start digging.
Part of the job is figuring out what snapped crude or gasoline into motion like that.
Sharp, sudden moves rarely happen without a reason, even if the reason isn’t obvious at first glance.
It Wasn’t Just Gasoline
Crude oil moved $2.50 in roughly the same timeframe. The move started right at the European cash close, shot higher, then reversed hard in the final stretch.
Layer that with a dollar index that has been running higher for no clear reason — and still pushing higher — and the picture gets even stranger.
A rising dollar typically pressures commodities lower, yet here we were watching energy spike, reverse and spin itself into knots.
There’s also a geopolitical dimension to this kind of action. Markets can rip higher on headlines, only to settle back down once fundamentals reassert themselves.
That initial burst of emotion followed by a quick return to reality is often a sign that something external briefly jolted the market.
So when gasoline and crude both make outsized moves in lockstep, with currency pressure and headline sensitivity in the mix, it’s not noise. It’s information.
What It Means for the Rest of Us
Here’s where it gets interesting beyond the futures screens.
Gasoline had already fallen from around $3.30 a gallon to $2.89 — a roughly 40-cent decline. In theory, that should show up at the pump.
But many people aren’t seeing that drop yet. That disconnect between wholesale prices and retail prices is something I watch closely because it tells you a lot about supply chains, margins and how energy inflation actually filters into the real world.
It’s also why moves like this matter far beyond traders. Energy is one of the few markets where extreme price swings ripple outward quickly — into transportation costs, consumer behavior, inflation readings and eventually the Fed’s thinking.
So when I see gasoline do a full day’s range in half an hour, crude jump for reasons that aren’t immediately clear and the dollar pressing higher at the same time, I’m not just watching energy.
I’m watching for the broader market implications that follow.
Stay sharp and keep your eyes on what moves when it shouldn’t.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram: https://t.me/+lm8_Nq3Su104NmFh
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialWars
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Geof Smith Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Wall Street’s Dirtiest Secret Yet…
I recently began sharing a secret report with my tight circle of buddies about hidden orders from Wall Street that send stocks higher within days…
Disclaimer: The trades expressed today are based on signals from the Sleeper Cell Scanner with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight unless otherwise stated. According to a backtest of 64 years of data dating back to 1962, the signals pulled by the scanner would have been 81.9% accurate on over 7,300 trade signals… No strategy is perfect, and wins are not guaranteed. There are bound to be winners and losers along the way. Since the Sleeper Cell Scanner is a tool for traders and not a trading service, profits and performance will vary among users.
