Why the US Is Already in a Rolling Recession

by Chris Pulver | Jun 9, 2025

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There’s a lot of debate out there about whether the U.S. economy is headed for a recession — but to me, it already feels like we’re in one. Just not the kind the headlines typically talk about.

What we’ve been living through is a rolling recession. Sector by sector, different parts of the economy are taking turns feeling the squeeze. It’s not a broad, all-at-once crash.

But it is very real for millions of Americans who are already working harder for less and paying more for everything.

It’s a Slippery Slope for Consumers

The strength of the market lately has been coming from a pretty narrow band of the population — the top 10-20% of consumers who can still spend freely. But that dynamic is fragile.

If those top consumers start to pull back — whether because of rising inflation, job losses or uncertainty about where the economy is headed — that’s when things could get ugly fast. Lower spending means lower consumption, and the effects of that will ripple quickly through the market.

Meanwhile, the bottom of the economy is already struggling. People are seeing rolling sector recessions hit their pocketbooks. One sector struggles, starts to recover, then another one takes a hit. It’s not broad-based enough yet for an official recession call, but it’s definitely being felt in day-to-day life.

Watch What the Market Is Telling You

This is why I keep saying that the market is smarter than all of it — smarter than the government, smarter than the Fed. Price action will ultimately tell us where this is headed.

If we start seeing consumers pull back, job losses pick up or tech stocks lose steam, the market will signal that fragility fast. That’s when you’ll really see the rolling recession take a broader shape — and potentially turn into something worse.

So for now, I’m watching price. The market will show us if the top consumers keep propping things up, or if the cracks start to widen. Either way, this isn’t some hypothetical future scenario. The rolling recession is already here — it just hasn’t hit everyone at once yet.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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