The 13.5% Trap: Why This Range Could Be a Bull-Bear Fakeout

by Chris Pulver | Apr 17, 2025

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Last week’s candle on the S&P 500 was a monster — 13.5% from low to high — and the Nasdaq printed an even wider one at 16%. That kind of move doesn’t happen in a vacuum.

It’s a signal that something bigger is unfolding beneath the surface, and the trap is thinking this is a clear-cut reversal. It’s not. It’s indecision — and we could be stuck here for weeks.

Inside the Range, Outside the Comfort Zone

Technically speaking, this looks like a classic inside candle setup on the weekly chart. We haven’t broken the lows from early last week. We haven’t taken out the highs from Wednesday either. The market’s just dancing around in this big range — roughly 5,100 to 5,500 on the S&P — and it’s anyone’s guess which side gives first.

The frustrating part is that even a 2% or 3% move, which normally feels huge, is still inside this larger range. It’s not directional. It’s noise. And if you’re not careful, that noise can bait you into getting too bullish or too bearish too fast.

That’s why I’m staying cautious. I’m not trying to be a hero. I’ve taken some profits, raised cash and locked in a few decent wins through Waterfall and Daily Profit trades. But I’m not going all in long — and I’m definitely not shorting blindly either.

The Market’s Next Move May Be No Move

There’s a real possibility we just grind sideways in this 13.5% range. That’s what makes it dangerous. If we break above 5,500, maybe we get a squeeze. But if we fail at resistance, we could easily roll back to the bottom of the range. And if that level gives, well — the real pain starts.

This is where you’ve got to be tactical. Sell premium when it makes sense. Take profit when you’re up 50%, 60%, even 75% on max risk. Don’t let greed or fear talk you into oversized trades when the market is still figuring itself out.

I’m not calling a generational low here. And I’m not calling a crash either. I’m calling it what it is — a high-volatility trap wrapped in a 13.5% box. Don’t get sucked into it. Trade the structure, manage the risk and live to fight another day.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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