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Silver just did something extraordinary — it made fresh all-time highs for three straight days. The kind of move that gets traders salivating and CNBC anchors breathless.
But here’s the thing… I’m not chasing it.
In fact, anyone jumping in right now without downside protection is stepping into a setup that looks increasingly unstable. The move is impressive, no doubt, but it’s also getting stretched in a way that never lasts.
We’re getting further and further away from every single moving average — and we’re going to come back to those levels. That’s not a prediction, it’s how markets function.
Yes, the momentum is powerful. Yes, the chart looks incredible. But incredible isn’t sustainable.
Why This Kind of Extension Always Snaps Back
When a market accelerates like this, it doesn’t move in a straight line forever. It’ll rip up, traders will chase, more traders will chase, and eventually the whole thing pulls back into some type of market efficiency.
That cycle of euphoria followed by gravity is as old as trading itself.
I still maintain core positions in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and Sprott Physical Gold and SIlver Trust (CEF), but at a fraction of what I held earlier this year when I locked in significant gains.
The risk-reward profile at these levels simply doesn’t justify chasing.
Even if silver were to go to $100, the structure stays the same. Resistance levels become support, those support levels get tested, and moving averages eventually catch price or price comes back down to meet them.
That’s the rhythm of trending markets, and silver is not exempt.
That’s why I’d much rather wait for a retracement that brings price back into a rational zone before adding size again.
The Levels I’m Watching for a High-Probability Re-Entry
From a Fibonacci standpoint, the probabilities remain in our favor if we exercise patience. There’s roughly a 60-65% chance we hit the 30% retracement level before retesting the highs. At the 38% level, the odds are still 55-60% that price eventually makes its way back to the peak.
Once we hit equilibrium around the 50% retracement, the market typically offers a substantial discount relative to the trend. Those are the kinds of spots where the risk-reward finally makes sense — not when price is floating far above every moving average on the chart and inviting a snapback.
Meanwhile, gold still hasn’t made a move…
It’s been choppy, indecisive, and it still needs to find its 200-day moving average. If we see equal lows and a topping pattern first, then measure out a symmetry reversal, that’s where I’ll get aggressive.
I’m extremely bullish on gold and silver long term. But I’m not buying at these levels — not when the technicals are screaming for a cooldown.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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