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My Favorite Swing Trade of the New Year

by | Jan 7, 2026

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This day focuses on momentum. If a name is moving fast, I want to be on it. I’ll go through parabolic moves, volatility breakouts and anything the Pinch Point Scanner pulls up that looks tradable!

 

I’ve had an interesting long-term relationship with Alcoa (AA) — one of those stocks where the technical setup and value proposition just keep pulling me back in. I’ve been trading this one for years and a couple weeks ago I called it out with Lance as an undervalued opportunity. 

Back then, I already owned shares I picked up around $20, and I was waiting to add more around the $10 level.

As I look at this latest move, I’m taking it as a swing opportunity and watching for pullback levels to buy dips. The question is always the same — where are my levels and where do I want to buy that breakout point?

Now, AA is running pretty aggressively toward the $65 breakout area, and I’m treating this as a swing setup with very specific accumulation points on pullbacks.

Let me walk you through how I’m thinking about this trade, and why this is my favorite swing play of the year.

The Technical Setup: A Measured Move to $90-$110

Here’s how I’m mapping this out technically: I’m taking the low-to-high range and projecting it from the higher low, which gives me a measured move target of $90-$110. That’s the zone where I’d be really happy taking profit.

From current levels around $65 to that $90 target, we’re looking at 40%+ upside. But here’s where it gets even better — if we pull back to the breakout point around $46 and then make the run to $90, that’s a 90%+ gain.

Those are the kinds of risk-reward setups I’m willing to commit capital to over time. The beauty of this stock is its pattern. AA tends to push and pause — it’ll run, form a bull flag, run again, pause again… 

Each of those pullbacks becomes an entry opportunity if you’re patient and methodical about it.

My Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy

I’m not interested in going all in at one level. That’s not how I approach swing trades like this, especially when I’m targeting significant upside over multiple months.

Here’s my accumulation plan: a small position at the current $65 level, additional positions at pullbacks to moving averages, and then the critical $46 breakout point as a major accumulation zone.

Think of it as level one, level two, level three, level four — I’m committed to building this position over time as the technical setup honors support levels. I use fractional shares, allocating maybe $100 to $1,000 per level rather than putting everything in at once.

If AA keeps running without a meaningful pullback, that’s a hard trade to participate in, which is why putting a little in now isn’t a bad thing. But I’m much more interested in the disciplined approach — waiting for those pullbacks into moving averages where the stock respects technical support.

I have chart alarms set at $65 for the measured move, and $68 to monitor how this unfolds. Stocks don’t just run straight up and fall — they push, pause, push, pause. 

Those pauses are where strategic traders accumulate, and that’s exactly where I’ll be adding as we work toward that $80, $90 and $100 zone.

I’ll see you in the markets. 

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading 

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Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Chris Pulver Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram. 

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

Ps. Have You Ever Heard of ‘Engineered Options?’

This weird class of options has shown the power to sidestep the market’s No. 1 problem… 

And turn even a 0.1% move into money-doubling opportunities.

Based on research, this special class of options would have doubled our money 31 times in 2025 alone…

So, for the first time EVER, Lance and I will be live at 7 p.m. ET this Sunday to give a full rundown on this breakthrough… including a chance for you to see the next setup lining up.

All you have to do is save your seat if you…

Want All the Goodies this Sunday?

We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but we cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results shown are from a 237-trade backtest from 1/1/20 – 1/1/26. The result was a 70% win rate, 40% average return (winners and losers), with a 7-day hold time

 

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