It’s not every day I run through seven earnings setups and only take one. But that’s exactly what happened in my Earnings Workshop on Wednesday….
I priced out trades in Crocs (CROX), Avis (CAR), Toast (TOST), Fortinet (FTNT), Expedia (EXPE), Zillow (ZG) and DraftKings (DKNG) — and only one made the cut.
When I go through that kind of list, I’m not just throwing darts. I’m weighing volatility, expected moves, past earnings behavior and what kind of premium I can realistically pull in.
So, yeah — seven charts in, and only one trade passed my filter.
DraftKings Was the Only Setup That Checked Every Box
Out of the group, DraftKings was the only one that made sense to me. The chart looked reasonable, the premiums were decent and the expected move lined up with the kind of trade I was looking to structure.
I didn’t love the setups on the rest. Some didn’t offer enough credit, some were too binary, and others — like OXY, which I looked at later — were fine on paper but just didn’t offer the edge I wanted.
This wasn’t about getting trades on the board for the sake of it. It was about discipline. I even liked Crocs and Toast for different reasons but passed.
Why? Because “kind of good” isn’t good enough when you’re running defined-risk trades into earnings with one- or two-day windows.
My DKNG Trade
I took a defined-risk trade on DKNG ahead of its earnings, which is after the close today, and the setup gave me exactly what I was looking for — a solid probability with a clean payoff structure.
I entered a four-leg combo for a $3.01 debit, targeting a potential $5 payoff if DKNG delivers a typical earnings pop.
The stock has an average move of around 10%, but in 10 of the last 16 earnings, it’s pushed past that — even hitting 15% or more.
The expected move was $3.75, so I bought the 34.50 call and 34 put, and sold the 39.50 call and 29 put expiring May 16. That gave me a little room outside the range, but still kept the cost manageable.
If we get a $4 to $5 move, I’ll be in good shape.
I don’t need a moonshot here — just a typical reaction. That’s what I like about setups like this. When you structure it right, the market doesn’t need to do anything crazy for you to get paid.
Earnings Season Isn’t a Game of Volume — It’s About Precision
I’ll say it again…
This game rewards precision. It punishes overtrading. If I don’t feel good about the trade — if the math doesn’t line up or the chart looks shaky — I don’t touch it. It doesn’t matter how many names I scan. I’m totally fine walking away with one trade if that’s all the setup gives me.
That’s how I approach every earnings cycle. Keep the risk tight, don’t overexpose yourself to noise, and be selective as hell. DraftKings earned its spot — the rest didn’t.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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