Full-on, longer form editorial

March 20, 2023

Well Worn Path

Right up to that point, stubborn inflation and an economy still showing signs of life were expected to force the Fed to continue its inflation fight. But then something broke.
March 17, 2023

The Spiralling Cost of the Dollar Status Quo

Each successive crisis or government imperative doubles the cost of bailing out the economy. And each bailout creates more dependence and fragility. It allows unavoidable risks to fester and grow.
March 16, 2023

Private Profits, Public Risk

This is the setup for the hyperinflationary crack up boom - skyrocketing stock prices alongside skyrocketing inflation - I’ve viewed as inevitable ever since the Federal Reserve abandoned any and all constraints on money supply back in 2008.
March 15, 2023

Regulatory Whack-a-Mole

Now, I know it’s tempting to point to the usual suspects listed above. But they ultimately draw power from voters. Voters that never fail to fall for political schemes, solutions, pandering, and burden shifting.
March 14, 2023

Incentives Matter

The past weeks regulatory unwinding of Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank have exposed the extreme fragility of a system far too reliant on free money.
March 13, 2023

Explicitly Fragile

Perhaps the Pivoters saw an FOMC vulnerable to populist political pressure that favored economic growth over price stability. Maybe they knew the U.S. economy was too fragile to handle 5% interest rates leaving the Fed no option but to relent.
March 10, 2023

Careful Where You Step

Sell those bonds when the price is down, however, and mark-to-market losses eat into the bank’s equity. And given that bank equity typically runs at about 10% of bank assets, equity can get wiped out pretty quick. All it takes is a 10% drop in bond prices to wipe a bank’s equity ledger clean.
March 9, 2023

Markets Aren’t Ready for This

Powell wants data? He's about to get it. Here's what's coming down the pike.
March 8, 2023

For the Love of Science

The scientific method gave us a way to understand objective reality. Nothing has done more to pull humanity out of ignorance and suffering than systematically observing and questioning our environment to create testable hypotheses. But science doesn’t explain the price of money.